By Marcus Reubenstein

For more than a week three Chinese Navy vessels have been navigating through international waters between Australia and New Zealand; they have now moved south to waters adjacent to Tasmania. In maritime terms this is a perfectly common situation—more than half the US Navy is stationed in or patrols the Pacific Ocean, thousands of kilometers from US shores.

The question is not what Chinese ships are doing so close to Australian waters, it is why? The simple answer is that Royal Australian Naval (RAN) vessels and Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) aircraft spend an inordinate amount of time “patrolling” the South China Seas around disputed islands, all the while skirting China’s territorial borders.

Don’t read too much into the actions of China, it is in great measure tit-for-tat diplomacy on the part of the Chinese. It’s not subtle, but equally it doesn’t mean China is preparing for some future attack or invasion on the Australian mainland. Throwing into that mix is the announcement by the Chinese that it had conducted two live fire exercises whilst in the Tasman Sea.

Liu Xiaobo, a former Chinese naval officer and director of the Beijing think tank, the Grandview Institution, told The Australian newspaper, “The move is in response to Australia’s activities in the South China Sea, including its joint drills with The Philippines, the US and Japan.”

Australia freely admits this, with an Australian Defence Force statement on 13 February 2025 saying, “For decades, the ADF has undertaken maritime surveillance activities in the region [South China Sea] and does so in accordance with international law, exercising the right to freedom of navigation and overflight in international waters and airspace.”

The relative point is that “for decades” Australia has been doing to China what China is now doing to Australia. In November 2023, it was reported that HMAS Toowoomba had “provocatively” sailed through the Taiwan Strait, far closer to mainland China than the three Chinese ships sailed to our shores.

At that time, Australian defence analyst Euan Graham was quoted as saying the Australian navy regularly transits through the Taiwan Strait but “chooses not to publicise it”. It should be noted that—unlike the east coast of Australia, Tasmania or New Zealand—Taiwan is recognised as a potential flashpoint of a major global conflict.

In October 2024, the RAN and RAAF joined the USA, Japan, New Zealand and Philippines in joint military exercises in the South China Sea. In September 2024, the RAAF participated in joint military exercises with the USA and Italy in the South China Sea. In August 2024, the RAAF joined the USA, Canada and Philippines in joint military exercises in the same contested waters.

In November 2023, the Chinese government lodged a diplomatic protest with Canberra for not informing Beijing that HMAS Toowoomba was conducting exercises in contested waters in the South China Sea.

There is a picture emerging, and that is China has sat back for quite some time and now chooses payback. China always plays the long game, and Australia should be geopolitically, and culturally, aware enough of our largest trading partner to realise this.

As pointed out in an article in Crikey, ANU international law professor Donald Rothwell says China did not violate any international rules through these exercises. Prime minister Anthony Albanese said China was in international waters, though the government made sure its displeasure at short notice being given before the commencement of the live fire exercises was known.

It’s not been confirmed what the nature of the Chinese live fire exercises were, but “live fire” is terminology that simply denotes live ordinances were used in a military exercise. This could well have been high caliber guns firing rounds into targets deployed from one of the three Chinese ships—those being a frigate, a cruiser and a supply vessel.

The story presented in Australia, by politicians and the media, has the sinister tone of tests involving high powered ballistic missiles which placed commercial airliners in imminent danger. It is almost certain that the government and the Australian Defence Force would have announced, and unequivocally condemned, any such firing of missiles. Given there was no condemnation, it is a reasonable assumption that the live fire exercises posed little threat to either Australia or New Zealand, or the skies above the Tasman.

As a precaution, commercial airliners were diverted from airspace over the international waters in which the Chinese naval vessels were conducting their exercises; this is not unusual. Though some years back, in 1992 a Qantas flight from Los Angeles to Sydney was diverted after a US Navy vessel involved in live fire exercises sent out a radio message that “hostile action would be taken” against the Qantas 747 if it didn’t change course. That was reportedly a mix-up by a US Navy radio operator; nonetheless, a Qantas airliner was forced to move out of international airspace based on the military exercises of our biggest ally.

Less than a fortnight ago, a RAAF P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft flew very close to Chinese airspace, prompting a Chinese jet fighter to fire flares in front of that aircraft. Unlike the media hysteria in Australia over the three Chinese ships, especially on Sky News, nobody was suggesting Australia was gearing up for an aerial assault on mainland China.

Australian Alert Service, 26 February 2025